Source: Boss Mustapha on X
Claim: Nigeria’s Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, claimed that the country generated 5105 megawatts of electricity on July 27, the highest in three years.
Verdict: False! Data from NESO shows that Nigeria generated 4,993.92MW peak power capacity on July 27, 2024.
Full Text
Stable electricity supply has, over the years, become an unattainable goal for many administrations in Nigeria.
In fact, the country has continued to battle epileptic power supply and erratic national grid collapses over the years.
As part of his manifestoes and after his swearing-in as the President of the most populous black nation on earth, President Bola Tinubu promised to improve power generation.
After he was sworn in, Tinubu said: “Electricity will become more accessible and affordable to businesses and homes alike. Power generation should nearly double, and transmission and distribution networks improved. We will encourage states to develop local sources as well”.
On April 22, 2024, during an oversight visit of the Senate Committee on Power to the Ministry of Power and the TCN in Abuja, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said that the Federal Government had concluded plans to ramp up power generation to a target of 6,000 Megawatts from 4,000MW by the end of 2024.
According to him, a 10-12,000MW transmission capacity has been set for the next three years.
The embattled Minister, whose sack Nigerians had called for in April over his comment that Nigerians were responsible for persistent power blackouts in the country, claimed Nigeria generated 5,105 megawatts of electricity on July 27, 2024.
Speaking at the inaugural meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Power Sector Working Group in Abuja on August 8, he added that the figure was the highest the country had generated in three years.
He said: “Just a few days ago, on July 27, we successfully generated and transmitted 5,105MW of power, the highest in the last three years. This is an improvement from the previous capacity of around 4,000MW or below. Our target is to achieve a landmark generation and transmission of 6,000MW by December.” Similar reports can be found here, here and here.
Given the suspicion surrounding the claim and the current electricity status of Nigeria, we conducted this fact-check to set the record straight.
Verification
We retrieved the daily operational reports from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) website, a semi-autonomous sector under the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). It updates its website with daily power generation capacity.
The Operational Report of July 27, 2024, retrieved from NESO, showed that Nigeria’s Peak Generation on July 26, 2024, was 4,992.75MW. The operational report for July 28, 2024 shows peak power generation on July 27, 2024 was 4,993.92MW, not 5,105MW as claimed by the Minister.
Screenshots from NESO website
However, we found that NESO reported the peak power generation on July 25, 2024, to be 5,023.9MW. This is higher than the 5003.45MW generated on May 3, 2024.
We also visited the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) website to retrieve power performance reports. NERC is an independent regulatory body with the authority to regulate the electric power industry in Nigeria.
Earlier Claim Of 5000MW In Three Years
During the ministerial sectoral update for the present administration in May this year, Adelabu claimed that Nigeria achieved 5000MW power generation for the first time in three years.
He said, “When it comes to generation capacity, 5000 megawatts (MW) of power was achieved in May 2024 for the first time in 3 years. Exactly 3rd of May 2024, we generated, transmitted, and distributed 5003.45MW of power while we normally generated below 4,000MW before.”
DUBAWA verified the claim and found it was true as the peak power generation on May 3, 2024, was 5003.45MW, the first since 2021.
We analysed the quarterly reports of NERC from December 2021 to 2024 and found that the last time Nigeria generated 5,000MW available power capacity was in the last quarter of 2021.
Quarterly reports on available power generation in Nigeria Q4 2021 to 2024
| Quarter | Average Power Generation Capacity |
| 2021 Q/4 | 5,465.72MW |
| 2022 Q/1 | 4,712.34MW |
| 2022 Q/2 | 4,508.38MW |
| 2022 Q/3 | 4,341.87MW |
| 2022 Q/4 | 4,503.59MW |
| 2023 Q/1 | 4,605.72MW |
| 2023 Q/2 | 4,387.91MW |
| 2023 Q/3 | 4,211.44MW |
| 2023 Q/4 | 4,922.26MW |
Source: DUBAWA
NERC reported that the average available generation capacity for the first quarter of 2024 was 4,249.10MW.
Current Power Generation
We further combed NESO’s daily operational reports and found that on August 8, 2024, the peak generation was 5,155.99MW. This indicates an improved power generation capacity over the claim of 5,105 by the minister.
Screenshot of report from NESO
Conclusion
Available data from NESO has shown that Nigeria generated 4,993.92MW peak power capacity on July 27, 2024 as against the claim by Nigeria’s power Minister, Adelabu that the country generated 5,105MW on the said date.
